Re: Daily Market Analysis by ForexMart

[AppleFX]

EUR/USD Technical Analysis: July 10, 2017

The EURUSD traded sideways during Friday’s trading and experienced a session with high volatility since US job figures took a longer time than the anticipated. Nevertheless, as the session ends it appeared that the pair begins to demonstrate stronger stance once again while the weekly candle generates a hammer formation.

The market would likely make an attempt to reach the 1.15 region where a significant resistance was seen in the past 3 years. Ability to break above it and a daily or weekly close would indicate a bullish sign showing that the market is apt to resume to go near the 1.18 handle.

Having said that, the market is currently in the “buy on the dips” condition in the near-term.

In case that the 1.15 handle was able to be broken down, it will suggest a major signal that the downward trend has ended. On one side, buyers will consider the single European currency in the longer-term or maybe tries to push it up towards the higher levels.

This is a situation where the Fed is thinking about the increase in interest rates, however, the European Central Bank recently mentioned the tightening of monetary policy which is quite surprising. With this, the pair requires some rebalancing which we have been witnessed. Otherwise, a break down under the 1.1350 area will test the 1.13 level and a breakdown below that point will consider the 1.11 mark eventually.

The overall market seems equal and buyers are currently in the driver’s seat.

[AppleFX]

AUD/USD Technical Analysis: July 10, 2017

The main trend of the AUD/USD pair in the daily swing chart is moving in an uptrend. However, the momentum is pushing it to go lower. When the trade exceeds the .7712, this will shift the main trend to move up.

A trade at the .7571 level indicates the continuation of the downtrend and possibly towards the minor base at .7535 region. A breakdown to this level will shift the course of the minor trend to go down.

The main trend range between .7372 and .7712 with a retracement level at .7542 and .7502 as the next lower target. With the uptrend of the market, the buyers will most likely return to the test zone. For short-term, the range is between .7712 and .7571 with the retracement area at .7642 and .7658 which is the next upside target. Sellers might counter the trend belligerently and attempt to create a secondary lower top in the next test.

The closing during Friday was positioned at .7600, similar to the price movement this morning. The direction of the AUD/USD pair highly depends on the trader’s sentiment to the downtrend angle at .7592.

When the .7592 is held, this signifies the presence of buyers in the market and could further go up with the potential targets at .7632, .7642, .7632 and .7658 levels. On the other hand, when the .7592 level is kept steady, this indicates the presence of sellers. The target level when the price moves to the downside with the initial target at .7571 then .7542 to .7535 levels.

Traders should monitor the angle at .7592. The reaction of traders will determine if buyers will enter the market or sellers will put in a selling pressure instead.

[AppleFX]

GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: July 10, 2017

The British pound against the U.S. dollar weakened on Friday last week because of below expectations manufacturing production data from the U.K. Although, the U.S. dollar has a higher value due to improved NFP data. This resulted in a faster correction of the pair which is necessary for the pair following several increases in the past few weeks. This has still reach highs of the range that lead to a correction.

The negative in the manufacturing data has put the pound bulls in dismay which was anticipated to continue the positive flow and attempt to lift the price range much higher to reflect that it soared to the upside. This has reversed the strong data from the U.K. over the past few months. There is also a tendency for the resignation of the U.K. prime minister May that indicates the political conflict has not been completely settled. This is not necessarily needed by U.K. as it proceeds with the negotiation with the Euro representatives over Brexit but they don’t have any other reasons to blame.

Better than anticipated outcome for the NFP data has alleviated concerns on negative data from the U.S. which was the trend in the past few months. However, traders are anxious on whether the Fed Reserve would raise its hikes amid the current situation. Nevertheless, the FOMC minutes indicated clearly that the next rate hike would be relative to the incoming data that makes that employment report to essential. The strong data pushed the price of the GBP/USD pair towards the 1.29 level which the former close of the week.

For today, the traders are expected to respond to the U.S. labor data on Friday on the first day of the week. It is anticipated to give off a bearish tone.

[AppleFX]

NZD/USD Technical Analysis: July 10, 2017

The New Zealand dollar declined during the week. The 0.7350 level gives a significant resistance level and if the market successfully breaks out then the price could further go towards the 0.75 handle. This opens the risk for a market roll over which was extended over time.

The central bank of New Zealand positions in a neutral stance which will weigh on the New Zealand dollar but if the risk appetite returns, then the kiwi will climb higher. Henceforth, the market will move higher if there are sufficient reasons to support this especially if it rallies in the stock market and the commodity market. If the price breaks over the 0.75 level and higher, this would push the price much higher towards the 0.7750 level.

A pullback from this region would open buying opportunities especially if the price declines lower than the 0.7250 level. This would be much more interesting if it reaches the 0.72 handle and the 0.70 level which are whole numbers.

The impulsiveness of the marker will propel the price to move higher. However, in the long-term chart, there was a lot of selling opportunity for the pair as how it was in the past.

Consequently, it needs more time to gain some momentum to break higher and pullback will not be unexpected. Despite the market being in the overbought area, it remains steadfast and further goes up to a much higher level when there is enough drive.

[AppleFX]

NZD/USD Technical Analysis: July 14, 2017

The New Zealand dollar against the U.S. dollar surged during the Thursday session attaining the 0.7350 level. It successfully broke slightly extended followed by a pullback as the resistance level wavers. However, signs of reversal called in buyers to try and hold over this trend.

If the market was able to sustain the 0.7350 level above, this opens more buying opportunity and attempt to push it towards the 0.75 handle in the upside. On the other hand, if the volatility persists in the overall trend, the market will target for the 0.73 support level.

The market will remain choppy regardless of the direction the market takes since the New Zealand dollar has lesser volumes compared to other major currencies worldwide. However, buying the dips could still be bargained. A daily close above the 0.7350 level would be a good move as of the moment. The 0.75 level remains significant in the long-term charts which determine the next target.

Traders should also monitor the commodity market which would have a great impact on the New Zealand dollar particularly to the agricultural sector. If the market breaks below the 0.7275 region, it could further go down towards the 0.72 level. Nevertheless, the market remains to be volatile but the buyers will jump in and take advantage of the situation to

[AppleFX]

EUR/USD Technical Analysis: July 14, 2017

As the EURUSD whipsawed on Thursday, the pair continued to move lower after the U.S. jobless claims report exceed expectations while U.S Producer Price Index came in stronger, as well.

The expected figures for European inflation were unable to buoy the euro which has a weak stance for the past two consecutive trading session.

The euro-dollar trailed downwards amid EU hours, however, rebounded during the North American session with an overwhelming inflation data. The exchange rate spent the day around the 10-day moving average found at the level 1.1401. It is bounded to test the support region near the upward sloping trend line next to 1.1315 mark.

The resistance highlighted the 1.1444 area near the highs in July. Meanwhile, the momentum became negative following the crossover sell signal generated by the moving average convergence divergence (MACD) histogram. It was triggered by the spread of the 12-day exponential moving average subtracted by the 26-day exponential moving average, that cross over below the 9-day exponential moving average.

[AppleFX]

AUD/USD Technical Analysis: July 19, 2017

The Australian currency rallied during Tuesday trading session on daytime and broke the 0.79 handle. The market broke out to the upside and appeared to go moving upwards.

After breaking the level above 0.7750, which is really bullish, the market would likely resume to trailed higher and eventually, the next target is found at 0.80 region.

Shorting the market is not ideal as the pullback still have a value. This is basically true since the gold market also rallied since the Aussie acts a proxy for the gold markets. It seems that value hunters will remain present in this market.

The level below 0.7750 is expected to be the floor in this market and staying at that point will be a buyer.

A pull back is needed to establish a stable momentum in order for the 0.80 region be best-selling, however, it may take some time to reach that zone.

It is recommended to buy pullbacks and the market could go to the upside when the break out will persist. A move over the 0.80 region enables buyer to enter the market and expand their positions

[AppleFX]

USD/CAD Technical Analysis: July 19, 2017

The U.S. dollar against the Canadian dollar declined during the Tuesday session as a continuation of the downtrend. The pair bounces off later but there will be sufficient amount of resistance found close to the 1.27 level. A formation of an exhaustive candle would signal selling of the pair.

A rally of the oil market would support the trend following the Crude oil inventories report which would be beneficial for loonies. It would not be wise to buy this pair and break higher than the 1.28 handle which is far from happening. Not long ago, the market the broke out significantly because of the rate hike from the Bank of Canada.

Bond trading has been pushing the currency and shorting of bonds. The trend could go much lower towards the 1.25 handle and even lower to 1.24 level below. Predominantly, there is a sell off in the market as the pair rallies instead of buying.

The market is negative in general which will most likely persist for some time unless the market crumbles which would be a warning sign. As seen in the chart, there are more selling opportunities found in the market. The location of the support level is not clear and there are still plenty of levels that could go much lower below.

[AppleFX]

USD/JPY Technical Analysis: July 19, 2017

The U.S. dollar against the Japanese yen fell during the Tuesday session as it approached the 112 level and further declines soon after. The market attempted to break out higher than the psychological level later for the day which possibly moves towards the 112.30 level that could push this market directed to the 113 handle.

A breakout to the said level will lead in the direction of the 114.50 level. There will also be volatility in the market which would be influenced by the global risk appetite. The interest rate differential would favor the U.S. dollar but would shift its focus on the Federal Reserve and its increase in interest rate after some time. The expectations have calmed down that is connected to the downfall of the USD/JPY pair.

The Japanese currency garners attention as it is subtle which was sold off against a basket of currencies worldwide. However, a break below the support level from this session could send the price towards 110 level as the next target of support. The 110 level is being supportive and would turn bullish after a break down from this area. For the long term, it is presumed to be going up and furthermore if given enough time. For short term, the trend will move bearishly but when the inflationary data from the U.S. would be released which would reverse the market trend.

[AppleFX]

EUR/USD Technical Analysis: July 20, 2017

The EURUSD declined as the European government bonds moved higher while the yields retreated near their American counterparts.

The downturn of the European yields versus treasuries put pressure on the forward curve which further weighs on the euro-dollar pair.

The report of the European Central Bank for tomorrow has the potential to have some changes from June, however, there are news that the officials are planning for tapering options for a decision in the fall has demonstrated that the peripheral debt and equity markets in the Eurozone performed less well than expected.

The pair edged lower from Tuesday peaks and broke out to the renewed 13-month highs.

The support came in at 1.1450 mark which is close to the 10-day moving average. The prices are able to consolidate and generated bull flag formation which is a respite that stimulates higher.

The momentum moved on the positive side as the moving average convergence divergence (MACD) index established a crossover signal to buy. The spread causes this to happen as it crossed over the 9-day exponential moving average of the spread. Moreover, the histogram shifted to the positive from the negative zone indicating a buy signal

[AppleFX]

USD/JPY Technical Analysis: July 20, 2017

The U.S. dollar against the Japanese yen moved sideways in the beginning of the Wednesday session followed by a breakdown towards 112 level. It further goes down towards the 111.50 region where sellers are anticipated to be seen. The 111 level offers sufficient support although the “real” support is found around the 110 handle.

This area is presumed to have a buying pressure while the short-term sellers will persist on pushing the price down. As long as it stays over the 112.50 region, the sellers will have the leverage. If the market successfully breaks above the said level, the trend could be reversed and reach towards the 113 handle. A break above it would then push the price towards 114 level.

The 112 level is a significant level in this chart and the market will persist to be highly volatile. On the other hand, the U.S. dollar will be at a disadvantage because of interest rate issue. Overall, the market will proceed with a selloff as the trend rallies.

For the long term, buyers can be seen close to the 110 handle in consideration of technical outlook. Volatility will remain which is usually the case and the pair will persist to be highly sensitive to the major news will be released from the Federal Reserve. It is possible to for both buyers and sellers to get what they want after some time. There are different positions possible for various traders as the volatility picks up in the market.

[AppleFX]

NZD/USD Technical Analysis: July 20, 2017

The New Zealand dollar attempted to move uphill during the Wednesday session but the 0.7375 is a strong barrier. This was followed by a pulled back directed towards the 0.7350 level below. This is an area where buyers are coming back as it is where it broke out before.

The depreciation of the U.S. dollar was a concern as the New Zealand dollar tries to trade in short positions towards 0.75 psychological level. This has a big influence on the price and is largely resistive. Hence, short-term buying of pullbacks is the way to move forwards and it is best to wait until it breaks below the 0.73 level before shorting this pair.

Volatility will continue in the market. As for the U.S. dollar, this is being sold off against other currencies worldwide which is most likely similar to other markets. Choppiness will stay longer in this market as it is expected to move to and fro regarding the greenback as a whole. The 0.73 below is massively supportive.

The target would be at 0.75 level which is massively resistive. If the market breaks above the said level, the New Zealand dollar would stay in a “buy and hold” situation. Selling should be put on hold as it breaks lower than the 0.7275 handle which is not a good sign and push this market lower directed to 0.72 level below.

[AppleFX]

EUR/GBP Technical Analysis: July 20, 2017

The Euro against the British pound moved laterally at the beginning of Wednesday session followed by a slight declined. There is a lot of choppiness as it moves closer to the 0.8850 level. There is a massive support found below the 0.88 level where the choppiness is expected to persist and buyers will return in the market after some time.

The 0.88 level below is being supportive in short-term perspective and it could move towards the 0.89 level. As for long-term, it will search for the 0.90 level which is massively significant psychological level. Pullbacks opens long opportunities unless it breaks lower than the 0.88 level which is not a good sign.

The volatility will persist for this pair in consideration of Brexit negotiation between the United Kingdom and the European Union. This adds risks to market which will be either favorable for the trader or not.

It is wise to look for smaller positions since the market could react to this at a faster rate and not be surprised and disturbed by the random comments from politicians in Brussels or London. Nevertheless, the uptrend remains strong in the long-term charts and a hint of bullishness below the present psychological levels.

[AppleFX]

GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: July 24, 2017

The market had a difficulty trading the British pound against the U.S. dollar pair for the past week. After the release of the weaker CPI and retail sales data from the U.S. last week, the pair surged to 1.3030 region and reach beyond the 1.31 region for a short period of time for that day. The traders anticipate the trend last week to be continued since the greenback is not performing well as of now.

The weakened dollar did not help the pound that frustrated traders. The pair underwent correction lower than 1.30 level during the early days of the week which was influenced by the minor recovery of the dollar which was also exhibited by the euro. It resulted to poor performance in the lower channel. Moreover, the less-than-expected economic data from the U.K. deviated the strong trend of data in the past few months. Although, it is anticipated that the market could recover when the dollar depreciated once again but it failed.

The dollar weakened as the end of the week approaches with the outcome of investigations regarding the business transaction of Trump concern rises. Although, most of other currencies take advantage of this situation to move higher. As for the GBP/USD pair, it stays relatively calm. Despite the strong data of retail sales report from the U.K., it was not sufficient to push the pair higher as it closed the week lower than 1.30 level. It seems that there are risks to incur losses in the coming week influenced by the uncertainty from Brexit which continues to affect the British currency.

For today, there are not many economic events for the week as the end of the month approaches and data subsided. For next week, the FOMC statement from the U.S. is anticipated to be announced. Hence, the GBP/USD pair is anticipated to proceed with a weaker trading condition close to the 1.3030 regions as a significant psychological level.

[AppleFX]

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: July 24, 2017

Draghi sounded dovish during the latest press conference and he was aware of the rally of the euro since the economic data favor the currency. Although the Draghi is trying to bring the price down as expressed in his speech, the market has reacted oppositely and bought the currency even more and push the price of the EUR/USD pair towards 1.15 level. Soon after, the news regarding the business transaction of Trump investigation, a selloff in the dollar occurred that influenced the price to move towards 1.16 region. The week closed above the said region.

In the upcoming week, we are heading towards the end of the month where the economic news and events dry up and hence we do not have much news in the coming week apart from the FOMC statement. But considering how bullish the EURUSD pair has been, we believe that the next target for the pair would be the 1.18 region.

As the last day of the week and the end of the month approaches, the pair will mostly persist in a neutral stance for today. There are less economic events except for the FOMC statement recently. The next target of the pair would be at 1.18 region for short term. Once this has been achieved, a correction could follow suit as it has been beyond its highs for the year and the highest since 2015. The number of short positions for the dollar will most likely increase that poses a lot of risks and uncertainty especially for dollar bears who would immediately exit the market once it goes up.

[AppleFX]

USD/JPY Technical Analysis: July 24, 2017

The U.S. dollar against the Japanese yen descended during the Friday session as it gaps lower than the 111.50 level. Hence, the market declined directed to the 111 region which is a significant psychological level for this pair. Yet, the main support should be found near the 110 handle and a rally from this would open selling opportunities in the market. The 110 region is massively supportive but a retest is still needed. It seems that the market is risk sensitive but the Federal Reserve announcement still has a big impact on the pair.

Traders are beginning to presume that the Fed Reserve will slowly raise its rates where Janet Yellen has said recently saying that the data will be relative to rate hikes. This could reverse the market trend completely.

The 110 region is an area could become relevantly supportive. A bullish pressure is anticipated in that area which will be additionally supported by statements from major players such as the Federal Reserve. It is probable for the market to become bearish in the succeeding trading session but there will also be a downward pressure that restricts the trade movement. If the trend breaks lower than the 109 level then the market could collapse.

[AppleFX]

GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: July 26, 2017

The price trend of the GBP/USD pair appeared to follow the path of the euro-dollar pair throughout the trading day, which is already expected because of fewer economic data in many countries since it was the last week of July.

It is important to note that the price action yesterday served as the support for the Cable which is the 1.3000 level, and anticipated to provide confidence for the bulls.

This type of buying support in the 1.28 area helped the pound-dollar pair to push near the 1.31 mark towards the close of the week. This support region is predicted to move upwards and we see it touching the 1.300.

On one side, the mentioned level clearly shows the Bears’ target who aims to drive the prices lower to trigger panic selling.

To a certain limited extent, the area around 1.3000 was maintained very well during this week and continue to serves as a launch pad for the pound bulls, pushing it to a higher point.

We only expect a single set of economic data for this week which is the FOMC meeting minutes to be released later this day.

The dollar was able to recover yesterday after the strong consumer confidence data along with the healthcare bill overhaul, considering the fact that the Republicans wants to continue the debate.

It is important to see if the dollar recovery continues to this day and will the focus remain to Fed minutes to know the thoughts of the Federal Reserve regarding the economic and monetary policy, lastly, to know if there’s such hint for the next rate increase from the United States.

[AppleFX]

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: July 26, 2017

The Euro against the U.S. dollar had a correction yesterday and the greenback recovered as the end of the day approaches. Although the dollar was at a disadvantage in the early part of the day, it supported the pair to move directed to 1.1712 which was similar to the highest level attained over the past two years. However, the pair dropped to 1.17 for the day.

During the U.S. session, there was a strong consumer confidence data from the U.S. that assisted the dollar for a minor recovery. The news when Republicans voted for another debate regarding the health care supported the dollar signifying that the Trump to gain support again for the bill to increase its potential to be approved. Hence, the dollar underwent recovery for a while and assisted the pair to decline towards the 1.1640 region where it is currently trading.

The pair was pounded in the past few weeks because of the problem that the Trump administrations entered in and the expected economic data and the Fed that do not support the currency. This still needs to be observed on what will happen this day as the FOMC minutes to be released later. The market is currently in a consolidation phase as of now since traders are waiting for the minutes meeting which is the only solid economic data for the week.

The minutes are to scheduled late in the US session as the market waits and monitor closely to look for hints on the schedule of the next rate hike. A weak result on the incoming economic data suggests a rate hike that could be delayed although a majority of the market is expecting it to happen this year and the minutes would hint on the next rate hike.

[AppleFX]

EUR/USD Technical Analysis: July 27, 2017

The U.S moved a little bit higher as US stock hits the renewed all-time highs. The yields of ECB eased following the rise on Tuesday amid huge gains from the European markets.

According to Fed, the changes on the normalization policy is expected to be release sooner or later upon talking about the balance sheet. Moreover, the interest rates were left unchanged.

The Federal Reserve further mentioned that the economy is driving below 2%.

Ewald Nowotny, a member of ECB’s governing council, claimed that the tapering is gaining traction, despite his opposing views about the final end date for asset purchases. This indicates that the European Central Bank are still committed to be careful after removing accommodation. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) wants the ECB to preserve its stimulus despite the low inflation and wage increase.

Furthermore, Greece made some steps to return to normal as the Italian sentiment rebounded. The EURUSD pair formed a Doji day which shows a pattern that suggests indecision conforming to the judgment of the Fed on Wednesday.

No one had expected that the Fed will describe QE tightening, hence any hint for normalization could probably provide a pause to the rally of stocks.

Higher American yields are dragging the pair lower and have been canceled out by the potential trend in ECB’s quantitative easing.

The euro-dollar pair generated a bull flag formation which serves as a pause to renewed higher. The support pierced the 1.1562 region around the 10-day moving average. The resistance, on the other hand, entered the 1.1712 range which is close to the peaks of July.

The momentum came in neutral as the MACD histogram prints in the black, but the trajectory headed lower and reflecting a consolidation.

​​

[AppleFX]

GBP/USD Technical Analysis: July 27, 2017

The British pound against the U.S. dollar moved sideways in the beginning of the Wednesday session. There is sufficient support found at the 1.30 level which pushes the trend to the upside. Later on, it is possible for the market to break the current psychological levels with the FOMC announcement to be released in the afternoon. Nevertheless, the markets were quiet as they wait for any hints from the Federal Reserve.

If traders can maintain traders more than the 1.30 level, the GBP/USD pair could move higher towards 1.3125 level and even much higher. There are still buying opportunities on the lows in the market since the British pound became cheaper.

Buying lows in the market are suggested instead of selling until a breakdown occurs below the massive support level. Unless it reaches lower than 1.2950, it is alright to sell the pair. However, if it drops even much lower, it is possible to drop even much more that would change the trend when it happens.

Buyers are more aggressive and it would not take long before they return to the market. If the trend gaps in the upper region, it will most likely reach the 1.3450 level which is possible after some time. Many major events that would come out from politicians could affect the British currency. The uptrend will presumably to continue in the long-term. Also, the pullbacks could offer opportunities in the market at a cheaper level.

[AppleFX]

USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis: July 31, 2017

The USD/CAD was able to obtain the highly-needed bounce on Thursday, which was previously mentioned since the week started. It is followed by the decline of the pair in the past few weeks because of the strong level in which the pair sits together with the possibility that this region is the buyer’s final stand.

As the strength of the dollar recovered, it helped the pair to soar high and affirmed lot of things in the following days. However, there is already a warning that the downward will be very intact and needed much time to return.

It is also mentioned that bears will use any bounce from the commodity-linked pair as an opportunity to sell prices highers. Any hints of recovery seen on Friday had plunged conclusively while the USDCAD appeared to be weak as usual.

The sluggish stance was triggered by the GDP figures of Canada and the United States. But the US data showed a marginally better than expected, while the Thursday’s data from the US prompted the market to have higher expectations from the gross domestic product. On one side, the Canadian GDP came in very strong and able to have another rate increase soon.

This led to a reversal of the whole trend since yesterday and the pair lies in below the 1.24 level which might become weaker.

Ultimately, there are no any major economic releases either from US or Canada. Therefore, consolidation is safely expected together with ranging of the dollar which is at disadvantage because of the developments over the White House during weekends.

Furthermore, it is predicted the USDCAD to remain in pressured area as the markets look forward to a plenty of data expected in the latter part of the week.

[AppleFX]

EUR/GBP Technical Analysis: July 31, 2017

The Euro against the British pound surged during the Friday session although there some resistance found close to the 0.8960 level. The market had a roll over for the few hours but was limited by the resistance level. There is much support found below that proceeds to market higher.

The next target would the 0.90 level and if the price breaks more and pushes the price towards 0.92 level for long-term. The 0.89 level below persists to be supportive that makes a breakdown far to happen. As shown in the weekly chart, the market sees the 0.89 level to be the support level.

Traders proceed to buy on the lows as it persists in supporting the euro currency. A breakout of both currencies occurred against the U.S. dollar although the market favors the euro more which is reflected in the pair. After some time, there is a lot of volatility in the market directed upward. Shorting this pair may not be ideal but the once the price breaks higher than the 0.90 level. Buyers will turn more hostile as the psychological level of resistance. However, if the price gaps below the 0.89 level which is extraordinarily bearish that would adjust the short-term trend.

[Sponsored content]