Re: Daily Market Analysis by ForexMart

[AppleFX]

USD/CAD Technical Analysis: April 25, 2017

The U.S. dollar against the Canadian dollar surpassed the 1.3535 Resistance level up to 1.3560 level. This could further go up towards the next target at 1.3600 region. The short term support is progressing in an upward direction from 1.3223 level and it seems that this will persist for sometime. The major resistance level is positioned at 1.3410 and a break lower than the said level indicates the completion of the uptrend.

The pair declined in the beginning of Monday session but recovered after a hammer like candle is formed. The oil market sold off which then influenced the currency and followed through. The market keep /on trying to break higher than the 1.35 level towards the next target at 1.36 handle. It is anticipated that actions in the upper channel would result to a “buy and hold” condition and may not be favorable to sell this for now. Buyers could return in the market in instanced of near-term reversals with the current condition of the oil market.

[AppleFX]

USD/JPY Technical Analysis: April 25, 2017

The U.S. dollar against the Japanese year broke higher in the beginning of Monday session maintaining the near term uptrend from 108.13 level. Investors were interested in ordering long yen as it is a safe haven that boosted the dollar to go up. If the pair continues to move within the trading range, this uptrend will most likely persist towards the next target at 112.00 region.

On the other hand, a clear break lower the the support area indicates completion of the uptrend at 110.57 mark and the continuation of the downtrend from 115.50 region. This could further go down towards the 108.13 support in the next retest.

A supportive candle opens buying opportunities since the market is inclined to move higher. Monitoring the short term charts would be the helpful to determined the support of buying pressure in the market and a break lower than the psychological levels would not be a good premonition.

[AppleFX]

USD/JPY Fundamental Analysis: April 25, 2017

The USD/JPY pair had a very volatile trading session last Monday although it managed to finish the session on a much higher note as investors reacted to the first round of the French national elections. However, the currency pair dropped slightly, an indication that investors were pretty much sure of the election results and were now moving towards other geopolitical events such as the North Korean issues and an impending shutdown in the US economy. The JPY could possibly resume its rally if concerns over geopolitical issues would increase over time. Meanwhile, the USD was also unable to stabilize itself due to a drop in Treasury yields and a very dismal US economic data.

As of the moment, the results of the French elections are showing that Macron could easily eclipse Le Pen in the second round of the elections, which is scheduled on May 7. The USD/JPY pair is not expected to make a significant reaction to the election unless Le Pen would be able to surpass Macron’s current lead in the elections. On the other hand, a looming government shutdown is expected from the US economy could possibly happen once the shutdown deadline of April 28 would fail to see the government passing enough legislations to ensure that certain branches of the government would not have to cease operating. Although the economy itself still has some back up funds which could ensure the economic stability of the country for several more months, this is not a good sign for the economy and investors are expected to act in accordance to this particular occurrence. Once this happens, then investors could possibly move towards safer assets such as the Japanese yen.

But the main focus of USD/JPY investors for this week are the events in North Korea, with the demand for safer assets expected to stay in place due to tensions created by the North Korean missile and nuclear program.

[AppleFX]

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: April 25, 2017

The EUR/USD pair’s action has been mainly dictated by the results of the first round of the French national elections, wherein Emmanuel Macron has been able to gain a significant headway against centrist candidate Marine Le Pen. As of late, Macron was able to gain a 20% lead against Le Pen, and this has been a very favorable occurrence as far as the market is concerned. The EUR/USD pair managed to break through its bearish trend last weekend and has commenced yesterday’s session by reaching an all-time high of 1.0919 points before settling to lower trading points.

If Macron manages to again win the second round of the French elections this coming May 7, then the eurozone currency could possibly breach higher levels and could hit 1.1300 points. However, this headway is still not enough to tone down market woes, and the final results of the elections would have to come out first before investor concerns would completely die down especially since the market is still somewhat reeling from geopolitical events which took a turn for the worse during the last minute, such as the Brexit referendum and Trump’s victory last year.

The German IFO Business Confidence data came out yesterday and clocked in its highest levels reached since 2011. This coming Thursday, the European Central Bank will be having a monetary policy meeting followed by a press conference immediately after. The central bank’s interest rates are expected to be maintained by ECB officials, although market players are expecting pointers on whether there will be possible adjustments on the central bank’s asset-buying mechanism.

[AppleFX]

GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: April 25, 2017

The GBP/USD pair maintained its current consolidating trend and is now situated within the bottom rung of its trading range at 1.2775 points. The currency pair traded with a slightly bearish undertone for the third straight session and is still struggling to reach last week’s surge caused by Theresa May’s call for a snap election this coming June.

The USD’s recovery seems to be the only that is maintaining the downward pressure on the GBP/USD pair, especially since Trump’s proactive economic policies are now lending some much-needed support for the currency pair. This is why the majority of market investors are anticipating Trump’s large-scale tax cut policies which is set to be released within the week.

For today’s session, the UK economy is expected to release its UK Public Sector Net Borrowing data, while the US economy will be releasing the US Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index which could possibly be the main attraction of the NY session later today. In addition, the US will also be releasing its new home sales data, House Price Index or HPI, and Richmond Manufacturing Index data.

[AppleFX]

EUR/USD Technical Analysis: April 26, 2017

On Tuesday, the Euro bulls were able to win back the driver’s seat following a neutral position in the night.

The major were removed from the region 1.0850 during the morning trades of Europe as it moved and rallied near its fresh peaks found at 1.0900 mark.

The price halted within the 1.0900 in which the EURUSD eyes some renewed offers. The single European currency had moderately eased eliminating its entire gains in the morning eventually.

As shown in the 4-hour chart the technical indicators appeared to be bullish. Resistance touched 1.0900 level, support pierced through 1.0850 range.

Moreover, a close over 1.0900 is expected to yield fresh bullish indicator in order to move further. It could probably reach the 1.0950 hurdle but correction is not ruled out as a means of filling the gap.

[AppleFX]

GBP/USD Technical Analysis: April 26, 2017

The general situation persists to manifest the same scene as of Tuesday. The British currency seems rangebound amid day trades. The price has already reached the band’s lower limit during the first part of the day and rebounded afterward.

The spot stalled having touched the range’s upper limit while technical indicators are in mixed signals.

Moreover, the Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) trailed lower while the RSI together with the MACD showed positive indications. Resistance entered 1.2900 level, support entered 1.2800 area.

A negative scenario is projected to take place. In case that the GBPUSD touched below the 1.2800 support region will trigger a downtrend in the near future.

[AppleFX]

AUD/USD Technical Analysis: April 26, 2017

The Australian currency became negative yesterday. The AUDUSD surpassed the 0.7550 region during the first part of the day and resumed to trailed down near 0.7500 level.

The commodity-linked pair highlighted the mark amid late trades of Europe. While technical indicators showed a bearish trend. Resistance is seen at 0.7550, support lies at 0.7500 range

Furthermore, a daily close under 0.7500 mark would expose for attack the 0.7450 mark.

[AppleFX]

EUR/GBP Technical Analysis: April 26, 2017

The Euro against the British pound declined on Tuesday after it broke above the 0.85 level giving a bullish tone in the pair. Consequently, the market will try to push the price higher possibly towards the 0.86 handle. If the price breaks lower than the base of the hammer pattern formed during Monday session, this will reverse the trend and will become bearish as they try to recover. It is anticipated for the pair to have very high volatility which traders should be cautious of.

[AppleFX]

GBP/JPY Technical Analysis: April 26, 2017

The British pound against the Japanese yen dropped during Tuesday trading. There is significant support found at 140 level that could reverse the trend and for a massive green candle pattern. The market will try to break the price even higher up to 145 handle. The 140 level could now become the support of the pair. The pair is moving upwards that seems to be in a longer term. The British pound broke its psychological levels and which may last for some time.

[AppleFX]

USD/JPY Technical Analysis: April 26, 2017

The USD/JPY pair exhibited a significant rally during Tuesday’s trading session after it garnered enough strength to break through the 111.000 trading range. The USD/JPY pair will now try to break 112.000 points but then there are a lot of occurrences which could dampen the currency pair’s advance towards this particular range. Positions on the JPY have recently dropped as there are now beginnings of a bullish undertone in all the related currency pairs.

However, the resistance levels for the USD/JPY pair is still undeniably strong, and this means that traders should be wary of putting their full confidence into the price action of the USD/JPY pair. Short-term corrections could be seen as an opportunity to buy into the pair, but traders are advised to go short with the Japanese yen as opposed to other currencies in addition to the US dollar.

Resistance levels for the USD/JPY pair are expected to be at 111.35 points, which could be a major selling point once the pair reaches 111.75 points.

[AppleFX]

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: April 26, 2017

A lot of market players have been saying during the start of the week that the EUR/USD pair’s momentum would most probably enable the pair to advance towards 1.0900 and could even reach 1.1000. The currency pair is now trading at just under 1.0950 points, with trade-attributed risks continuing to hound the market as an effect of the very positive news from the eurozone over the weekend.

The results of the French national elections over the weekend showed Emmanuel Macron gaining significant headway against centrist candidate Marine Le Pen, with the opinion polls showing that Macron could possibly eclipse Le Pen further in the second round of the elections this coming May 7. Macron is considered as the more euro-friendly between the two candidates, and a Macron victory would translate to a very positive effect for the euro. On the other hand, we have seen the dollar weakening drastically across the board, and this has prompted several investors to pull out from safer assets and invest instead in the stock market and in the euro. In addition, Trump’s consistent statements with regards to building a wall and renegotiating its trade relations with Canada, and these kinds of statements are usually not well-received by the market and this dissatisfaction is evident by the number of market players who sold off the US dollar.

The EUR was able to clear up its annual highs within the 1.0900 trading range, and as such, the EUR/USD pair is expected to advance further towards 1.1000 points. For today’s session, there are no major releases coming from the EU economy, and the EUR/USD pair is expected to go higher as the day progresses. The euro rate announcement will also be released during tomorrow’s session, and the EUR/USD pair is expected to receive leverage from this particular piece of information.

[AppleFX]

NZD/USD Technical Analysis: April 27, 2017

The New Zealand Dollar was kept under pressured area on Wednesday. The price weakened during the night and stalled near the level 0.6900 in the late session of Europe. Meanwhile, technical indicators provided sell signals.

Resistance highlighted 0.6950 mark, support is at 0.6900 area.

As the drop in the NZD quotations was canceled, a stable growth came about and breakdown to the region 0.7050 for further indication of growth.

There are no significant releases from New Zealand as the pair will not experience any impact with regards to the exchange rate.

Inability to maintain 0.6900 would likely move the NZDUSD to continue its downward momentum through 0.6850.

[AppleFX]

AUD/USD Technical Analysis: April 27, 2017

The Australian currency slumped significantly during the Wednesday session as it broke lower than the 50% Fibonacci Retracement level. A break lower than the 0.7450 level would proceed to go lower but sellers could come anytime in the market being the price to go up. The next target would range close to 0.7375 and below with 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement level.

The pair broke in its support region but still lingers close today’s lows indicating strong pressure to sell the pair. It surpassed the 0.7475-0.7500 support range which was the former resistance area.

This could be followed by a slide towards at 0.7385 with followed by 0.7285 level with 61.8% and 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level respectively. As it reaches the 0.73 handle, a bullish trend becomes apparent which becomes a good support level. A breakdown in these levels could result to pursue selling in the next few days,

However, if the Aussie returned to 0.75 handle similar to daily close which is not a good sign. The price could move back directed towards the top of its range at 0.7700 and 0.7750. Nevertheless, a breakdown is more likely to happen.

[AppleFX]

USD/CAD Technical Analysis: April 27, 2017

The U.S. dollar against the Canadian dollar attempted to go higher but the 1.36 level stayed strong. Hence, the price would quite go down as the oil market surge. The 1.35 level becomes a significant support which would open more buying opportunities. However, if the price breaks higher than the latest high, this would translate the market into a buy and hold condition. It may not be favorable to order short this pair as it might go higher.

[AppleFX]

EUR/GBP Technical Analysis: April 27, 2017

The Euro paired against the British pound surged in the beginning of the Wednesday session. The Resistance level was too strong that the market failed to break out. Consequently, the price would most probably decline and tried to fill the gap formed at the beginning of the week. Traders who would like to sell for short-term could do so but should be heedful of a lot of noise present in the area and best to wait for the sidelines until a chance to go long comes in. A breakout of the current trading range would also be a propitious sign for this pair.

[AppleFX]

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: April 27, 2017

The EUR/USD pair backfooted during the earlier parts of yesterday’s session following rumors that Trump will be releasing the details of his proposed tax plans within the week, with these tax cuts expected to be large-scale and caused the USD to surge and pushed the currency pair at 1.0900 and is now moving at the 1.0850 trading range, with traders now expecting Trump’s comments regarding this particular issue.

During the NY trading session, President Trump announced the details of his tax plan, although it appeared as if the market has pretty much cashed in on the situation as the USD was unable to make much progress as the said tax plan was announced. The USD instead dropped in value across the board since the market was expecting additional tax cuts and more details than what was initially released to the public yesterday. Simply put, the market expected more details but instead got headlines and other media-worthy bits. Nevertheless the tax plans are somewhat looking good although it has yet to be seen whether Trump’s tax plan would be easily approved or if it would have to face challenges which was what happened to the administration’s health care plan. The weakness of the USD caused the EUR/USD pair to revert towards just above 1.0900 points.

For today’s session, the ECB will be releasing its rate announcement followed by a press conference, wherein the central bank is expected to maintain its current rates. The market is now monitoring whether Draghi would induce the euro to go back down especially after the currency surged as a response to the first round of the French elections. Draghi would want to maintain the weakness of the euro, but then again this is somewhat impossible now that the region’s economic indicators are looking very positive.

[AppleFX]

GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: April 27, 2017

The GBP/USD pair had a very consistent price action during yesterday’s trading session although it is still located at the 1.2900 trading range which the pair has reached a few trading sessions ago. Unless the currency pair manages to break through this particular trading range, then there is still a risk that the GBP/USD pair could revert anytime into the 1.2600 range in the short term. As of the moment, the pair’s bulls have total control of the currency pair but if the cable pair is still unable to make an upward move in the coming days, then the pair should be pushed down in order to gain more buyers, thereby creating just enough momentum for the pair to shoot past 1.2900 points once the pair rallies again.

During the previous session, the GBP/USD pair underwent a very restricted consolidation mode since the market was busy monitoring the results of Trump’s announcement later that day. After the tax plan was announced, the dollar dropped slightly in value and this caused the GBP/USD pair to climb above the 1.2850 trading range where it looks poised to further reach into the 1.2900 region. The announcement from Trump was unable to improve the dollar outlook as most of the details of the announcement was pretty much priced in by the market. In addition, the market is also somewhat skeptical on whether Trump would be able to actually push through with the tax plan as most of his campaign promises are left unsupported by members of his own party, such as the health care plan. This caused the USD to backfoot which was then used by the GBP/USD pair to gain an advantage in the market.

For today’s session, there are no expected releases from the UK economy while the US will be releasing its unemployment claims data. Traders are advised to take caution as choppy trading is expected today.

[AppleFX]

GBP/USD Technical Analysis: April 28, 2017

The currency pair Great Britain Pound to US Dollar is seen trading around 1.2903 area. The Cable successfully refreshed the local maximum level but the head and shoulders reversal pattern formed at the MACD histogram.

The signal line remained in the MACD limits and we do not rule out the possibility for sterling to edged higher.

Should the GBPUSD rose would test its potential to reach the upper boundary of the increasing channel. The target for fall is the range within the support 1.2650 mark.

Canceling the version of declining quotations would signal a stable growth and further breakdown within the 1.2980 level while the expectation for continuous growth will extend around the decline of the upper boundary of the ascending channel.

According to projections, the pair will accelerate its downfall alongside the drop slow MA level and its daily close at 1.2760 region.

[AppleFX]

AUD/USD Technical Analysis: April 28, 2017

The Australian dollar against the U.S. dollar surged during the Thursday session. Although the 0.75 area was being resistive and a break at 0.7540 level indicates completion of the downtrend. This reversed the trend as it reached below the 0.7450 and 0.7439 region. A break lower than the base of the region, the pair is anticipated to continue its decline even in the next few days towards the next target of 0.7400 level. The 0.7375 level becomes a significant support with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level and it seems that the pair will hold upon this level. The gold market could support the pair to boost demand for the currency.

[AppleFX]

GBP/JPY Technical Analysis: April 28, 2017

The British pound surged against the Japanese yen on Thursday session after breaking above the shooting star pattern formed in the former session. It indicates bullishness of the trend which could continue to rise higher but few short-term pullbacks are good for the pair. For long term traders, the market could try to reach higher than the 145 handle.

The pound persists in climbing higher because of the relief rally where the centrist candidate, Emmanuel Macron won over the far-right rival, Marine Le Pen. Japanese yen being a safe haven dropped abruptly over a week amid a risky environment.

The GBP/JPY pair rose sharply to break the major downtrend line moving up to 148.00 level despite the Brexit tension has passed and lower demand for safe-haven assets such as yen. The rally has been sustained until Thursday session that also pushed the pair higher and hampers unexpected political surprises that also affects global market. The next major resistance level would be close to the 145.00 region. If the market fails to break higher than the 145.00 level, the pair could move again towards the next target of 148.00 resistance region.

[AppleFX]

GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: May 2, 2017

Yesterday was a very slow trading day for the GBP/USD pair as the market holidays in Europe and Asia left several trading desks vacant, thereby decreasing the amount of market volatility. The currency pair had briefly attempted to test its range highs at 1.2945 points but then eventually dropped in value as the day progressed before finally closing down yesterday’s session at 1.2900 points.

There is little market volatility nowadays in spite of Trump being as crass as usual with regards to his public comments on Twitter regarding US relationships with other countries such as Russia and China, mostly because market players have somehow gotten used to the President’s attitude. As a result, the GBP/USD pair was largely affected since it still has no definite course of action as of late. However, it is only a matter of time before the expected surge of economic data which usually occurs during the first week of a new month. The GBP/USD pair is expected to exhibit more consolidation until all the scheduled economic reports are released within the week, starting from the FOMC minutes this coming Wednesday.

For today’s session, the UK economy will be releasing its Manufacturing PMI data during the EU session, with the said reading expected to follow the recent slew of positive economic data from the region during these past few months. If this indeed happens, then the cable pair could possibly test its range highs yet again within today’s session.

[AppleFX]

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: May 2, 2017

The EUR/USD pair exhibited a ranging and consolidation during the duration of yesterday’s session. It was a market holiday yesterday in several parts of Europe and Asia, and this is why the market volatility and liquidity levels were on a low during the previous session. In addition, traders are also proceeding with caution since the first week of the month is usually characterized by an influx of economic readings from last month.

These factors were the main reason why the currency pair consolidated within a small range of less than 50 pips. Today could be considered as the legitimate start of the week, and now that there is an expected surge of data coming from last month, the market is expected to undergo some significant volatility for today. The EUR/USD pair ran at 200 pips during the previous week following the results of French national elections, and this is why the currency pair could possibly be subject to corrections, although it has yet to be seen just how significant these corrections would be. The 1.0850 trading range is expected to ward off any corrections at least for the time being while the market waits for the release of economic data this week. The FOMC meeting minutes, the NFP report, and a speech from Yellen will be released within the week which could induce volatility in the pair. However, the market will be looking out for any hints of a Fed rate hike this June and if this does not happen, then the EUR/USD pair could possibly test the 1.1000 trading range.

For today’s session, there are no major economic releases from both the EU and US economy for today, and the EUR/USD pair is expected to undergo a consolidation with bearish undertones for the rest of today’s session.

[AppleFX]

USD/JPY Fundamental Analysis: May 2, 2017

Investors on the USD/JPY pair chose to pay no mind to the relatively weak economic data coming from the US and instead shifted its focus on the recent increase in the demand for high-yield assets such as stocks, as well as an increase in the yields of US Treasuries. The USD/JPY pair closed down the previous session at 11.824 points after increasing by +0.30% or 0.335 points.

A drop in the US economy’s inflation and factory rates has put out any possible expectations for an interest rate hike this coming June from the Fed. Meanwhile, the PCE index dropped by 0.1 points last March, the index’s largest decrease ever since September 2001. In addition, the Core PCE Price Index increased by 1.6%, which is its smallest gain since July 2016. US Treasury yields surged yesterday after the US government managed to avoid a possible shutdown after clinching a deal for government funding. Equity prices also managed to climb higher, which also heightened the demand for high-risk assets and diminished the demand for the Japanese yen.

The USD/JPY pair could possibly find more support just as long as there is a demand for high-yield assets. However, the currency pair quickly became range-bound since investors are now bracing themselves for the Fed’s interest rate decision this coming Wednesday. As of the moment, the Federal Reserve is not expected to implement an interest rate hike this coming Wednesday, however the USD/JPY could possibly be influenced by the central bank’s statement tomorrow. Traders are advised to look for any clues with regards to the Fed’s next timing for its interest rate hike.

[AppleFX]

GBP/USD Technical Analysis: May 2, 2017

The British pound dwindled on its previous highs followed by traders’ decision to sell its stock with higher to value to gain profits. The major declined towards 1.2900 region where the downturn stopped afterwards. The technical indicators showed mixed signals.

Furthermore, the 50, 100 and 200-EMAs exhibited buying signal. The RSI and MACD are trading in the downside. Resistance approached near the 1.3000 level, support touched 1.2900 range.

According to predictions, a break under 1.2900 will generate an area for further negative movement. In line with this possible scenario, sellers are expected to drive the spot towards 1.2800 mark.

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