Re: Daily Market Analysis by ForexMart

[AppleFX]

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: February 2, 2017

The EUR/USD pair’s strong stance for the whole month of January was mostly due to dollar weakness as a result of Trump’s recent policies and brash sentiments which has affected the country’s economy. The market initially had a positive outlook for the US dollar after the Fed hinted at additional rate hikes in the coming months, however they failed to consider the Trump administration’s ability to have a major effect on the world economy.

Immediately after Donald Trump assumed office, his administration already made on good on his campaign policies such as building a Mexican border wall and implementing an immigration ban in the US, which has sparked outrage among several world leaders and US citizens. His team also made major changes in Obamacare and has also proceeded to ban immigrants from certain Muslim countries. This has caused widespread concern in the market and has led to dollar sell-offs and has enabled the EUR/USD pair to close down the month of January near the critical resistance barrier of 1.0800 points.

For the month of February, there is an expected onslaught of major economic data to be released which includes the FOMC minutes meeting and the NFP data from the US, but the market is most likely to put more emphasis on Trump’s governance and his future implementing policies. The euro might eventually crack and plummet once the dollar regains its footing and starts going back up, with the euro possibly returning to its monthly lows last December.

[AppleFX]

GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: February 2, 2017

The GBP/USD pair had a generally good run for January in spite of the fact that the Trump administration has begun to take its reins in the US economy and started implementing policies which has adversely affected the market and the international economy as well. This has then resulted to a major sell-off in the USD which has helped in boosting the value of the GBP/USD pair. This particular currency pair is also the only pair which has increased in value due to the pound strength, making it very attractive for the pound bulls.

Theresa May has also finally clarified her stance and point of action for the Brexit process and has also stated that the UK will be exiting completely from the Eurozone in order to establish a completely different trade relationship with the region. In addition, the SC has also ruled that the invocation of the Article 50 must first undergo deliberation and approval by the Parliament excluding Scotland, Wales, and Ireland, which lended support for the currency pair and induced it to climb up to 1.2650 points.

For the month of February, market players will be mainly focusing on the movement of the USD as the Trump administration implement more policies. But this does not mean that the market will be focusing less on Brexit, since the UK government will finally be carrying out its plans for the nation. But there is still a major sell-off expected in the GBP/USD pair since there is still the lingering Brexit process in spite of the highly positive economic data coming from the US.

[AppleFX]

NZD/USD Technical Analysis: February 2, 2017

The Bank of New Zealand disclosed a mixed data as of yesterday. Meanwhile, the Jobless Rate came in negative. The Employment Change matched the expectations and the Participation Rate increased. The bulls continued to handle the market. The NZD continued to reverse its Tuesday’s low seen at 0.7250 and made a minor reversal in the mid-EU session. The spot nearly touched 0.7300 upon the easing of buying pressure. The price rebounded in the 100-EMA shown in the 1-hour chart. The spot is sandwiched between the 50 and 100-EMAS. The moving averages preserved its bullishness mentioned in the same chart.

Resistance is at 0.7300, support is at 0.7250 range. The MACD is trading on the upside. The RSI lies around the neutral territory. According to the 4-hour chart, a bullish sentiment dominated the market. A break on top of 0.7300 would suggests an increase through 0.7350.

[AppleFX]

GBP/USD Technical Analysis: February 2, 2017

The Manufacturing PMI of the United Kingdom met its projected result where the British currency got some support. The sterling successfully removes its losses yesterday. The bullish trend currently reigns over the market.

The buyers found a hurdle around the 1.2600 level and retreated amid Asian hours. The GBP/USD keep moving closer to 1.2600 region prior to the London opening. The buyers were able to push the barrier throughout the middle session of the European hours and resumed its bullishness eventually. The Cable remain to develop on top of the moving averages indicated in the 4-hour chart. The 100-EMA cross the 200-EMA in an up direction. The 100 and 50-EMAs preserved their bullish pattern while 200-EMA kept a bearish-neutral stance. Resistance touched 1.2700, support lies at 1.2600.

The MACD histogram is situated in the centerline. If the indicator approaches the negative zone, it will imply added strength for the sellers while an entry towards the positive territory will signal buyers ability to manage the market in general. RSI proceeds in the overvalued area.

The pair is possible to move near the 1.2700 mark .

[AppleFX]

EUR/USD Technical Analysis: February 2, 2017

The American dollar remained in the pressured area on the back of the remarks made by the trade advisor of D.Trump, accusing the countries China, Germany and Japan about exploitation over undervalued currencies.

Moreover, the single European currency obtained support from the positive figures of inflation within the euro region. The investors currently awaits for the Fed meeting.

The ascending trend of EURUSD remained unchanged on Wednesday. The euro kept intact versus its U.S rival following the rally during the morning trades on Tuesday. The buyers have consolidated their gains as it grasp the spot in the flat trend under the level 1.0800. The price pushed the 50-EMA towards a higher point as seen in the 4-hour chart. The spot is confined overhead the moving averages. The 50 and 100-EMAs preserved a bullish stance while 200-EMA was in the flat lining. Resistance approached 1.0800, support hit 1.0750 mark.

The MACD increased which signaled buyer’s strength. RSI stayed in the overvalued territory after it left the neutral zone.

The bulls were able to lead the overall mark. We will impose a buy order in case the pair made a breakout near the 1.8000 resistance level. A close on top of the barrier will generate gain through 1.07500. Furthermore, the hawkish comments of Yellen could possibly bring back the sellers to the market. The most possible scenario is a dipped on the lower point of 1.0750.

[AppleFX]

GBP/JPY Technical Analysis: February 2, 2017

The GBP/JPY pair broke higher than the Tuesday candle on Wednesday's trading session. This indicates a bullish tone for the pair after breaking above the hammer pattern on Tuesday implying for the price to move higher while a strong resistance is found at 145 handle. Hence, it is possible for the price to fall which would be a buying opportunity in the short-term charts. If the price breaks higher than the current psychological level, the price could further go up towards the 148 handle. On the other hand, it may not be favorable for selling the pair since the 140 level sits as a support level.

[AppleFX]

USD/CAD Technical Analysis: February 2, 2017

The greenback surged against loonies on Wednesday's trading session as the price hovers looking for psychological levels. If the price was able to break higher than the range for the day, the next price could reach to 1.32 handle. However, a breakdown lower than the 1.30 level is not a good sign moreover, if the price breaks even lower than the Tuesday range. Traders should monitor the oil market as it has an inverse correlation for the pair and will have an impact to the Canadian dollar.

[AppleFX]

EUR/GBP Technical Analysis: February 2, 2017

The EUR/GBP pair broke lower on Wednesday’s trading session eliminating the bottom of the shooting star on Tuesday. If the price trend breaks at the 0.85 handle, giving signs of support that makes it a substantial price level for this pair. However, if the price breaks much lower at 0.8450 level, this signals the price to further go down. On the other hand, if the price rebounded or formed a supportive candle instead, then this could lead to consolidation of the price to toggle within a tight range.

[AppleFX]

USD/JPY Technical Analysis: February 2, 2017

The USD/JPY pair was still under pressure on Wednesday's Trading session after the greenback weakened against the yen on Tuesday. Overnight, the price stayed at 113.60 level prior the opening of European trading session. However, later during the mid trading session, a new selling pressure drove the price towards the 113.00 level. Bulls are fighting over it as they try to pull the positions higher than the 113.00 handle. The Resistance level is found at 114.00 while the Support level comes in at 113.00.

In the charts, the price maintained low in the 50-, 100- and 200-EMAs. The Moving Averages moves lower in the same charts. The MACD entered the negative zone and will most likely stay for some time as the sellers dominate the market. The RSI stayed in the Oversold territory making the price open to a new high.

The pair maintained its strong bearish tone open for new risks to go lower. It is probable to open for new lows while it is favorable for the price to drop lower than the 113.00 level. The next target of sellers is at 112.00 handle.

[AppleFX]

USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis: February 3, 2017

The market has been generally expecting the USD/CAD pair to undergo a period of ranging and consolidation as the US prepares to release its NFP report, and this was what happened with this particular currency pair during the past trading sessions. The USD/CAD is currently trading at over 1.3000 and is headed in a generally disappointing trading streak, but then again this region has strong support barriers, and this region might be a good place for traders to go long with a stop loss.

Oil prices have already settled down last month and has exhibited little activity on both directions. As a result, the Canadian dollar was able to obtain some support and the economic data scheduled to be released from Canada are also expected to be generally positive, and there are no major changes expected to occur within the Canadian economy. The drop in the value of the USD/CAD was mainly due to the weakness of the dollar, and once Trump makes major changes in the NAFTA agreement, then the trade relationship between US and Canada could be up for some major adjustments. This has no positive effect on both economies whatsoever, and this uncertainty has been fueling the drop in the value of the currency pair.

There are no major news expected to be released from the Canadian economy today but the market is expecting the release of the NFP report as well as the average earnings data and the non-manufacturing PMI data from the US. If these data comes out as positive, then this could further affirm an interest rate hike from the Fed in the near future, but a weak reading could cause the USD to further decrease in value.

[AppleFX]

GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: February 3, 2017

The GBP/USD pair is currently trading at 1.2500 points after briefly reaching 1.2700 points after traders took sell opportunities every time the GBP/USD exhibited reversions. The Bank of England released its statement yesterday and maintained its current rates as expected, while the monetary policy meetings and inflation reports did not deliver anything significant to the economy and did not induce any market activity. However, these neutral readings had adversely affected the currency pair since the majority of market players were expecting hawkish comments from the BoE as well as from the inflation reports, but since both of these data came out as neutral, the market was generally disappointed and this put a significant amount of downward pressure on the value of the sterling pound. However, it was a good thing that the dollar was weak, since if the dollar were stronger then the pound might sink even lower.

The pound is expected to continue its losing streak, and any reversions are expected to be met with major sell-offs, especially with the oncoming volatility which will be caused by the implementation of the Brexit process. For today’s session, UK will be releasing its services PMI data and US will be releasing its NFP reports and wage earnings data. These string of economic readings set to be released today are expected to increase the pair’s volatility. The market is expecting a positive US labor report, and if this happens, then the GBP/USD pair might be able to break through 1.2500 and move further towards 1.2400 points.

[AppleFX]

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: February 3, 2017

The EUR/USD pair has been subject to a lot of messy trading activity during the past trading sessions as the pair had no definite direction and generally exhibited an uncertain trading stance. The currency pair has been vainly trying to break through the 1.0800 trading range and briefly made it through this barrier and even reached up to 1.0828 points but eventually reverted back to its original stance after a massive sell-off met the pair, causing it to fall back to 1.0800 and even went as low as just over 1.0760 points.

Today is the scheduled release date of the NFP report from the US, and the market volatility is expected to surge as this particular report is one of the major economic reports anticipated by the markets every month. The NFP report now is even more crucial than ever, because the Fed has previously stated that the central bank will be relying on positive economic data as basis for whether they will be hiking interest rates in the future or otherwise. In addition, the release of the NFP report is equally important to restore investor and trader confidence in the USD, especially since the past few days has seen the dollar subject to more weakness as Trump drew negative comments from his recently implemented foreign policies such as the immigration ban. This is one of the reasons why the general direction of the EUR/USD remains uncertain since the market wants first to confirm the results of the NFP report before making any concrete moves.

For today’s session, US will be releasing its NFP report as well as the non-manufacturing PMI data and average wage earnings data. Investors are hoping that these economic data comes out as positive in order to induce some strength in the ever-weakening stance of the US dollar.

[AppleFX]

USD/CAD Technical Analysis: February 3, 2017
The USDCAD presented a downbeat data on Thursday. Sellers were able to pushed the spot downwards over the night. The pair moves beyond the area 1.3050 and proceeds in the 1.2980 handle where the greens established a decent support. Having reached the level, the pair rebounded and made a gradual increase. Moreover, the price hovered down the moving averages shown in the 4-hour chart. The 50-EMA had an upward crossover towards the 100-EMA. Moving averages preserved a bearish stance mentioned within the same chart. Resistance is seen at 1.3050, support sits at 1.2980. MACD histogram grew which provided strength for the sellers. RSI is confined in the oversold zone following its escape from the neutral readings.
The market is dominated by a bearish trend. A break in the 1.2980 support may cause for the pair to fall and reach a new level at 1.2910.

[AppleFX]

GBP/USD Technical Analysis: February 3, 2017

The Bank of England remained steady at 0.25% as of the previous day. The decision made by the regulators weakened the British currency while the pessimistic data from the PMI Construction further created more pressure.

The strengthening of the greenbacks felt across the board which provided support for the GBP/USD to attain a renewed multi-month highs last Wednesday.

The Cable resumed its development overnight and found a hurdle in the 1.2700 region and the sterling moves closer to the barrier during the morning trades. On one side, investors supposed that the pair lacks some reason for a hike up. The major had a sharp decline through 1.2600 mark prior to the New York open. The pair is kept intact overhead of the moving averages viewed in the 4-hour chart. The 100 and 50-EMAs moved northbound while 200-EMA was flat. Resistance is at 1.2600, support touched 1.2500. MACD increased which signaled strength for the buyers. RSI stayed around the overvalued territory.

The technicals in the 4-hour chart favored an extension upward. The GBPUSD is expected to preserve its bullishness in order to gain 1.2800 region following the break of 1.2700 level. Failure to post renewed gains could push the pound to endure a short-term bearish correction

through 1.2600 and 1.2500.

[AppleFX]

EUR/USD Technical Analysis: February 3, 2017

The single European currency got some support from the decline of Spain’s Unemployment Change and it further benefited from the retracement of US dollar. Investor keeps their focus on Draghi’s announcement took place on Thursday.

The euro came in green versus its U.S rival and resumed its bullishness eventually. Traders drove the price to 1.0800 during the Asian hours and lead the level in the post-EU opening. The price rebounded in the 50-EMA as seen in the 4-hour chart. The EUR/USD progress on top of the moving averages. According to the 4-hour chart, the 50, 100 and 200-EMAs en route upwards. Resistance touched 1.0850, support entered 1.0800. The MACD is viewed as bullish and confined in the positive zone. The RSI consolidated in the overvalued territory and headed higher.

Based on the forecast, the EUR may obtain a bullish momentum granting that it hovered above 1.0800 resistance region. In line with this, the pair could expand its development towards the mark 1.8050. Sellers should lead below the area 1.0700 in to help ease the pressure while the 1.0600 handle manage to control.

[AppleFX]

NZD/USD Technical Analysis: February 3, 2017

The Kiwi against greenback trades with high volatility on Thursday trading session. The 0.7350 level stands as a minor resistance but levels below the 0.72 mark also gives support for the pair. For now, it is good to wait on the sidelines until the price breaks higher than the Resistance levels or to drop lower from the support to be more certain which seems about to happen today as the U.S. Nonfarm payrolls are about to be released.

[AppleFX]

EUR/GBP Technical Analysis: February 3, 2017

The EUR/GBP pair sits atop the 0.85 level that seems to be a strong support to form a bullish candle pattern. This signals the price could further go up which is favorable for buyers but there might be choppiness to linger in the upper channel. It may not be wise to sell the pair with 0.85 and below being a strong support but if the price breaks lower than the 0.8450 level, the pair could reverse and becomes a downtrend.

[AppleFX]

EUR/JPY Technical Analysis: February 3, 2017

The Euppy pair has been on a correction since last month in 2016 inducing high volatility in the market. Most of major economic events affect the Japanese yen with monetary policy statements and policy rates remain the same unlike in Euro. The BOJ is scheduled to have a meeting today which is described to be favorable for the yen against Euro in the succeeding trading days.

The Retails sales report for Euro is expected to have a result as much as 0.03% which is significantly greater than the former -0.04% while the Italian Preliminary CPI is anticipated to incur 0.02% less than the former 0.04%.

There is a high volatility present for the pair ranging between the 122.070 and 120.90 levels with false breakouts implying the uncertainty in the market. This cause indecisiveness even to bulls with impulsiveness of the bears taking over the market as it breaks lower than the 120.90 level. It is anticipated to close lower than the target towards the 118.50 level which is a probable strong support for the price after reaching the 120.90 level.

Despite its fall on Thursday, there seems to have a strong support which is around 120 handle that makes it highly plausible for the buyers to take over again the market. Hence, it is favorable to trade long positions but traders should be cautioned of choppiness in the market. Overall, if the price remains strong within the upper channel, then there would not much be of a problem and keep the pair steadfast.

[AppleFX]

USD/JPY Fundamental Analysis: February 6, 2017

The USD/JPY pair attempted to rally several times during the past week due to the positive feel of the US equity markets as well as its effect on the US carry trade but there was a shortage of buyers which could have fueled an upside follow-through. The USD/JPY pair finished the previous trading session at 112.551 points after dropping by -2.17% or 2.496 points. This movement in the currency pair was largely due to Trump’s comments in the past week as well as statements coming from both the Fed and the BoJ.

The FOMC maintained its current rates last week at 0.50%-0.75% and was generally expected by the majority of market players, but the bearish tone of the USD/JPY pair was also largely influenced by the Fed’s refusal to give out hints with regards to its next interest rate hike.

There are no major news releases coming from either Japan or US for this week, and this means that the market will be affected by events that will have a bearing on the current stance of the US dollar. Currently, Trump is aiming for a weaker USD value in order for him to upgrade his statements with regards to currency devaluations and other unfair trade policies. The charts are indicating that the USD/JPY pair could possibly rise up to 109.919 points if sellers of the pair would be able to put enough pressure on the market to march through 112.00 points.

[AppleFX]

GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: February 6, 2017
The GBP/USD pair has been entrapped in a wide range of 400-500 pips during the past few weeks in spite of the fact that the bulls should be well-fed due to the recent strength exhibited by the sterling pound. Unlike other major currencies, which perished instantly the minute the USD showed signs of weakness, the GBP was able to keep its head above water by some sheer innate force present within the value of the sterling pound.
The market is now getting closer and closer to the invocation date of Article 50, which will then commence the start of the Brexit process, and a lot of market players are very thankful that the workings of the Brexit process are now becoming clear as the invocation date draws nearer. This might not be entirely good news, but at the very least this clarity would lend some sense of direction especially for GBP/USD traders. This is one of the reasons why the sterling pound is doing relatively well against other major currencies who are bearing the brunt of the USD’s weakness. The GBP/USD pair briefly traded within its range highs but eventually dropped and closed last week’s session at 1.2500 points and could possibly weaken further although there might be some minor bounces at 1.2400 or 1.2300 points. Any large corrections within this particular currency pair would probably lead to selloffs since the UK’s economic fundamentals are still looking very positive as of the moment.
UK will be releasing its manufacturing production data this week, and the GBP/USD pair would most likely drop further towards 1.2400 and could even become weaker and reach 1.2300 where a reversion is expected in order to put the currency pair within the safe range.

[AppleFX]

USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis: February 6, 2017

The USD/CAD pair had to deal with a very dismal trading movement last week after its consistent uptrend was finally faced with some barriers. The currency pair dropped below 1.3000 for a short period but eventually reverted albeit much weaker than its expected reversions. The market is now becoming concerned that the USD/CAD was unable to fully regain its strength especially since this pair is expected to be subject to more pressure during this week.

This drop in the pair’s value can be largely attributed to the dollar weakness which has become evident in the value of the USD/CAD pair especially since Canada’s economy is well on its way to further improvement and oil prices are now starting to exhibit stability as the oil production cut agreement continues to bode well for all oil economies, particularly Canada. The US dollar has been negatively hit by the various policies implemented by the Trump administration. With Donald Trump now looking at the NAFTA agreement. If the NAFTA becomes suspended, then this would have a negative effect on the economies of all countries involved, such as Canada, Mexico, and even the US. This is one of the reasons why the currency pair’s support barrier at 1.3000 points has been in significant risk during the past week.

The market is now monitoring whether the bulls of this pair would still manage to maintain its hold on this particular barrier especially since the US average wages report came in with very weak readings last Friday which has caused the US market to slump. This week is the Canadian economy’s turn, since Canada will be releasing its employment data and this is expected to give clues on the current state of the Canadian economy. If the pair manages to break through 1.3000, then this could be seen as a reversal in the pair’s current uptrend.

[AppleFX]

AUD/USD Technical Analysis: February 6, 2017

The negative figures from the Chinese PMI affected the commodities declining demand which involves the commodity currencies such as the Aussie dollar. As the US treasury bond yields recovered, the greenbacks got some decent support from it on Friday.

The pair traded with a slightly bearish sentiment last February 3 and come close to its multi-month highs. Meanwhile, buyers found a predetermined level 0.7700 and unable to reclaim it. Therefore, bulls weren't able to sustain their gains and return to 0.7650. The region stalled the progress of the sellers as it secures the prize on its area amid the EU opening. The price slipped through the NY hours on the back of negating its losses on a daily basis. The AUD/USD is confined on top of the bullish moving averages mentioned in the 4-hour chart. Resistance settled near 0.7700, support entered 0.7650.

The MACD weakened which confirmed a weak position of the buyers. RSI consolidated around the overvalued territory. The pair should reach 0.7700 in order to alleviate the bearish bias. Contrarily, a downward movement would likely emerge when the AUDUSD had a dipped at 0.7650 level. A close below the aforesaid mark allows the pair to extend it declivity towards 0.7550.

[AppleFX]

GBP/USD Technical Analysis: February 6, 2017

The British currency was kept in the pressured area on the back of a downbeat data of Services PMI coupled with the stronger stance of the greens.

Th sterling had a steep decline on Thursday after gaining a decent support within 1.2500 level where traders stalled for a renewed market indicators during the Asian hours. A bout of renewed selling interest drove the spot towards a lower position during the post opening of London trades. The GBP moved ahead to 1.2450 after it broke the region 1.2500 amid the American session.

As shown in the 4-hour chart, the Cable leads the 50-EMA to a lower point. While the throughout the European hours, the spot is confined on top of the 100 and 200-EMAs. The 100-EMA advanced higher while the 200 and 50-EMA lies in the flat-lining. Resistance is at 1.2600, support touched 1.2500.

The MACD histogram sits in the centerline. An entry in the negative territory would signal for an increasing strength for the sellers. While, if it entered the positive area, buyers will dominate the entire market. RSI remained around the oversold zone near the neutral readings.

A break under 1.2500 is expected which would imply the continuing phase of a bearish outlook. Furthermore, a downward trend within the 1.2400 level is considered to occur.

[AppleFX]

EUR/USD Technical Analysis: February 6, 2017

The greenbacks remained steady last Friday and beat the mixed data from the euro region. The Composite PMI and Markit Eurozone Composite PMI exceeded the expected outcome while the report for the Retail Sales presented negative figures. The bullishness on Friday was kept intact.

The single European currency came in green and continuously to lost its steam during the morning trades. Traders drove the spot towards the lower region of the ascending channel at 1.0750. Sellers had a tough attempt to break the uptrend line amid EU session and successfully make a gap prior to the onset of New York trades. According to the 4-hour chart, the price tested the 50-EMA in the EU hours while other moving averages headed up. Resistance settled at 1.0750. Support entered 1.0700 level. The MACD grew less which signaled weak position for the buyers. RSI escaped from the overvalued territory and proceeded southwards.

A near-term bearish sentiment might prevail. A position close to 1.0750, the EUR/USD pair next target is the support area 1.0700.

[AppleFX]

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: February 6, 2017

The EUR/USD pair will undergo pressure this week. Moreover, the NFP report was positive as the average earnings positioned at 0.1% lower than the expected 0.3%. When at first, it is expected for the bulls to take over the market but the trend doesn't have enough momentum bringing the price towards the 1.0800 as a resistance level which was the prior region. The greenback is being swayed because of the uncertainty from Trump and his team to change the policies and cannot be determined the next move of Euro.

The current psychological level at 1.0800 is a significant region and a break in this region could further bring the price towards the 1.12 mark which has been the region for some time last week. The market is trying to break the EUR/USD in the midst of the weakened dollar. At the same time, the market aims to stabilize the current rates but there were not enough support from the administration and economic policy changes and the reports of the economic data.

Although, a majority of the support for the currency supported from the economic data or the administration and at the same time influence the next Fed rate hike. However, it seems that the wage earnings reports are on the lows which could delay the rate hike process. This would put more pressure to the dollar today and this whole week and it is still uncertain until when the dollar rates would hold.

As for today, there will be no major economic news from the Euro or from U.S. regions. It is expected for the price to EUR/USD to remain in consolidation with a bullish bias with chances of a breakout near the 1.0800 level.

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