Re: Daily Market Analysis by ForexMart

[AppleFX]

NZD/USD Technical Analysis: February 6, 2017

The Kiwi against greenback declined on Friday's trading session. A strong support was found at 0.7250 level but was able to reverse the trend after forming a bullish candle while the resistance is found at 0.7350 level. If the price breaks higher than the psychological levels which will then result to a decline to the 0.71 level. Traders should expect high volatility in the market. Hence, fluctuations and rough trading for the pair.

[AppleFX]

USD/CAD Technical Analysis: February 6, 2017

The pair USD/CAD surged on Friday's trading session. It turned around finding a resistance towards the 1.30 level. The price could set into a new fresh low and this could further go down. However, if the price breaks higher than the candle pattern formed on Friday's session, there could be chances for buying opportunities. Traders should monitor the oil market as it has an influence to the Canadian dollar that usually affects the price inversely for the pair.

[AppleFX]

USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis: February 7, 2017

In the past week, the USD/CAD pair has been constantly struggling to hold its own footing in the face of a fast-deteriorating USD value as well as with the recent increase in oil prices. It was the only a matter of time when the currency pair hit the major support barriers of 1.3000, where the currency pair finally saw a reversal in its present trend. The USD/CAD bulls have taken immense advantage of this particular advantage since a lot of them immediately proceeded to defend their 1.3000 region positions.

However, since the value of the USD continued to be consistently weak during the past few days particularly against the Japanese yen, and with oil prices dropping during the previous trading session, the USD/CAD pairs again took advantage of this particular event by inducing the pair’s movement to surge by 100 pips within just a couple of hours, and even though the currency pair has finally settled and now trades just below 1.3100, the market’s outlook on the currency pair has completely turned around and a lot of investors are focused on the pair’s possible uptick, with the 1.3000 barrier becoming the determining point for the currency pair’s future movement.

For today’s trading sessions, the Canadian economy will be releasing its trade balance data and this is expected to inject additional volatility in the USD/CAD pair. However, the currency pair might be in for more ranging and consolidation as the market waits for the pair’s next concrete move.

[AppleFX]

GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: February 7, 2017

Just like the euro, the sterling pound was also unable to capitalize on the pronounced weakness in the value of the USD even though the NFP report released last Friday disappointed a lot of investors and helped sustain the downward pressure on the US dollar. Under normal circumstances, other major currencies such as the euro and the GBP would have been able to increase their respective values as a response to the USD’s weakness, but then again both currencies are faced with their separate set of problems, from the UK’s impending Article 50 invocation and the Brexit process and the EU’s increasing political tension due to the upcoming French national elections. This has then caused the GBP/USD to drop further in value immediately after the release of the NFP report and has been unable to go past 1.2500 in the past 24 hours.

The sterling pound is expected to remain under immense pressure since the Brexit process is now starting to be implemented albeit slowly, and as May’s plans begin to take shape, a slew of various concerns and other such uncertainties are also expected to come through and put significant pressure on the value of the sterling pound up until the near future. The GBP/USD pair has not made any significant progress in the past trading sessions, and this is expected to remain to be the pair’s short-term outlook.

Since there are no major economic data coming out from both the US and the UK for today, the GBP/USD pair would most probably continue its ranging and consolidation activity with bearish undertones. Market players are advised to monitor the 1.2400 range since the pair could possibly reach 1.2300 if the pair manages to break within this range. Conversely, the 1.2500 should also be closely monitored by investors.

[AppleFX]

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: February 7, 2017

The EUR/USD pair maintained its ranging and consolidation activity with a range of 100 pips after it was unable to make a clean break on either sides of the chart. The USD had a weak trading activity yesterday after the NFP report disappointed the majority of investors and erased hopes of the Fed hiking up its interest rates in the near future. This, along with immigration-related problems surrounding the Trump administration has been very vital in affecting the weakening value of the US dollar.

Market analysts had been saying during the past sessions that the EUR/USD pair would continue consolidating unless it manages to go beyond 1.0800 since this will be the only time that the EUR/USD would be making substantial progress. In the past 24 hours, both the US and the European Union were facing their own problems, from Trump’s immigration policies and the Eurozone’s increasing political tension especially with the impending French national elections, with some French parties stating their plans to separate France from the EU once they get in power. This is why the EUR was unable to take advantage of the dollar weakness which could have made some large-scale gains given a wholly different political atmosphere.

There are no major news releases expected to come out from the EU today so the EUR/USD would most likely continue its ranging and consolidation trend for today. The euro would most likely continue to remain stagnant until such time that it manages to make a clean break through 1.0800 points.

[AppleFX]

NZD/USD Technical Analysis: February 7, 2017

The NZD/USD continued to move through the rising channel yesterday. The NZD traded on its recent highs and stayed on top of the 0.7300 level throughout the day.

The 4-hour chart mentioned that the pair rebounded to the 50-EMA and kept intact overhead the moving averages. The MAs (50, 100 and 200) maneuvered an upward direction as shown in the aforesaid chart. Resistance touched 0.7350 region, support pierced 0.7300.

MACD histogram is bullish. It further hovered within the positive zone. RSI continually sits around the overvalued territory.

A bullish outlook dominated on Monday with a primary target 0.7350. A break in the 0.7350 mark generates a possible extension towards 0.7400 range.

[AppleFX]

GBP/USD Technical Analysis: February 7, 2017

The British currency continued to gain losses on Monday on the back of BoE’s no rush decision regarding rate hikes coupled with the Inflation Report since the previous week

The sterling had a mixed trades yesterday. Moreover, the GBP/USD weakened during the morning trades and continued to move downwards.

A renewed buying interest occurred amid opening of EU trades which further provided support to the spot. The cable got a stable position throughout the European session and hold a few pips under the region 1.2500 prior to the onset of NA trading. As shown in the 4-hour chart, the price drove the 50-EMA lower and hovered on top of 200 and 100 EMAs. The 100-EMA is moving northbound while the 50 and 200-EMAs stayed in the neutral stance mentioned in the same timeframe. Resistance is at 1.2500, support sits close the 1.2400 handle.

The MACD approached the negative zone, sustaining this position would indicate a stronger position for the sellers. RSI is confined around the oversold area near the neutral readings.

In spite of the decline that recently occurred, the bullish trend was able to maintain its progress. A close under the mark 1.2500 would signal a renewed bearish outlook and has the possibility to advance towards 1.2400 hurdle. Contrarily, a close on top of 1.2500 would retake a bullish sentiment to the cable pair. The spot is possible to recover in the short-term 1.2600.

[AppleFX]

EUR/USD Technical Analysis: February 7, 2017

The greenbacks brought an impact against the single European currency on Monday. The EUR/USD softened on the back of US recovery following a recent sell-off. Meanwhile, the euro take no attention towards the upbeat figures of the German Factory Orders.

The EUR came in negative subsequent to Monday opening. In case, a break on top of the 1.0800 mark backslid, a profit-taking could take place which would push the spot downwards. The price rebounded the 1.0800 barrier and reached 1.0750 amid EU session.

Sellers were able to resume its gains throughout the North American session. According to the 4-hour chart, the pair tested the 50-EMA. All moving averages (50, 100 and 200) seems bullish. Resistance is found at 1.0750 level, support entered 1.0700 region.

The MACD declined which confirmed weak buyer’s position. RSI moved southward after it departed from the overvalued territory

Technicals manifested a near-term bearish picture and fixate at 1.0700. The 1.0650 support region emerge after the level broke. A break down to 1.0650 could sway an unfavorable market sentiment. However, a positive outlook can be sustained upon a break lower than the aforementioned predetermined level.

[AppleFX]

USD/CAD Technical Analysis: February 7, 2017

The U.S. dollar surged paired against the Canadian dollar on Monday’s trading session as it climbed up to 1.31 handle. The price turned around heading downward from 1.3387 level after it climbed from 1.2968 level which is a form of consolidation for the price. If the price was able to stay below the said level, this signals the downtrend to continue towards the 1.2800 mark.

The uptrend will most likely continue for some time particularly in the short term. The current psychological levels brings a strong support and if the market is able to break below this, the outcome would not be favorable for the greenback. Hence, traders should expect high volatility in the market.

[AppleFX]

EUR/GBP Technical Analysis: February 7, 2017

The Euro against the British Pound declined on Monday. Despite the downfall, the price enough support in the 50-EMA to recover the price trend giving a positive outlook. If the market is able to break higher than the candle formed in the trading session, the price could move again in the upside. Short-term pullbacks may be used as buying opportunities that may switched to a bullish pressure in the market later on. The next target of buyers will be at 0.8850 level.

[AppleFX]

AUD/USD Technical Analysis: February 7, 2017

The Australian dollar declined on Monday’s trading session in a high volatility market. There seems to be a strong support found below with buying opportunities close to the 0.76 handle. The price moves in an uptrend which seems to be overextended for some time. The pullback may influenced a strong offer of the price for traders that are willing to buy. The Resistance level is seen at 0.7750 mark while current support level could further decline towards the 0.75 and lower.

[AppleFX]

USD/CAD Technical Analysis: February 13, 2017

The USDCAD was neutral amid Friday night trades. The Asian recovery slowed down overhead the level 1.3120. The greens tried to resume its gains but attempts failed. Renewed selling pressure affected the spot rebounding the price lower than 1.3120 during afternoon session.

The USD fall behind 1.3050 level prior to the opening of the New York hours.

According to the 4-hour chart, the rebounded the 50-EMA lower and tested the 100-day moving averages. The pair is confined under the 200 and 100-EMA throughout the day. The 100 and 50-EMAs is neutralize while 200-EMA moved lower as shown in the same timeframe. Resistance is at 1.3120, support entered 1.3050 region. The MACD histogram decreased which implied weak position for the buyers. RSI is confined in the overvalued territory near the neutral zone.

Bearish sentiment is expected to prevail. If the commodity-linked pair remained on top of the 1.3120 mark, sell order will be posted. The next possible target of the sellers is 1.3050.

[AppleFX]

GBP/USD Technical Analysis: February 13, 2017

The figures for the United Kingdom Industrial Production exceeded the expected results which further give a temporary support for the British currency. Nevertheless, the recovery of the greens is wide-ranging causing the GBPUSD to conduct a reversal.

The sterling preserved its neutral stance amid Asian session on Friday. The spot hovered on top of 1.2500 close to the handle.

Traders were able to surpass the region after the EU hours and continued to push the spot through 1.2450 area.

The 4-hour chart presented that the price drove 100 and 50-EMAs towards a lower point. The 50 and 200-EMAs seem neutral while the 100-day moving averages descended as seen in the aforesaid chart. Resistance touched 1.2500 mark, support lies at 1.2400.

MACD is placed in the centerline. An entry within the positive zone will provide added strength for the buyers while an attempt towards the negative territory will allow sellers to take over the market. The RSI stayed in the neutral region. Either a move lower than 1.2500 would help produce an opportunity to test 1.2400.

[AppleFX]

EUR/USD Technical Analysis: February 13, 2017

Non-Farm Payrolls in France came in positive but the single European currency ignored these strong data. The euro was kept intact in the pressured area on the back of the increasing political instability relative to France’s Presidential election. Moreover, the imminent vote-casting within Germany, Italy, and Netherlands brought added pressure against the EUR. Meanwhile, the US dollar demand was supported by the tax reform proposal by Trump.

The greenbacks further strengthened on Friday while the euro weakened after a clear recovery at night amid EU session.

Traders surpass the 1.0650 level and drove the price downwards during the New York trades. The EUR/USD pushed the 200-day moving averages as shown in the 4-hour chart. The 100 and 50-EMAs were bearish-neutral while 200-EMA manifested a bullish bias in the aforesaid timeframe. Resistance is seen at 1.0650 region, support touched 1.0600 handle.

MACD indicator softened implying a sell signal. RSI is confined in the oversold territory, indicating a downtrend. Another lower movement is expected, reaching the 1.0600 mark. A close below the support region is possible to provide further weakening through 1.0550.

[AppleFX]

GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: February 13, 2017

The GBP/USD pair merely continued its weak trading activity following the steady surge in the value of the USD, which started last Friday and has continued up until today’s session. Since the Brexit process has already been seen to put tremendous pressure on the sterling pound, traders have been consistently advised to engage in pound selloffs once the pair progresses since the currency pair might experience a slump in the short term.

This particular forecast has been during the past few weeks, where the GBP/USD pair has been relentlessly attempting to push through its upper barrier as a reaction to a string of positive economic data from the UK as well as some minor challenges such as the SC’s ruling on the Brexit process, and Theresa May’s release of her guidelines with regards to the Brexit process. These clarifications has helped increase the value of the sterling pound but dissipated almost immediately as Brexit concerns re-surged, and now we have the dollar strength which has put downward pressure on the GBP/USD pair and has caused the pair to trade below 1.2500 points. Since the dollar strength is expected to continue for the rest of the week, the currency pair might possibly drop further to 1.2400 in the short term and could even reach 1.2300 depending on how the dollar’s activity pans out.

There are no major news releases coming from both the UK and the US for today and this is why the market is generally expecting the recent dollar trend to continue. The GBP/USD pair would most likely trade weakly but in a higher range unless the pair manages to go cleanly through 1.2700 points.

[AppleFX]

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: February 13, 2017

The EUR/USD pair has been subject to a lot of pressure ever since the trading session last Friday up to today due to the US dollar regaining its strength and exhibiting this newfound strength across the board. This positive value of the USD is expected to continue for the rest of this week and the market is quite interested on how the currency pair will be coping with this recent surge in the US dollar’s value. Presently, the EUR/USD pair has been holding its own on the 1.0600 trading region and the bears have been making repeated attempts to break through this barrier but to no avail. However, the increase in the value of the USD has not direly affected the value of other major currencies but has been slowly but surely increasing and if this particular trend continues then the support barrier might be broken soon enough.

The dollar strength has been largely attributed to Trump’s statements that his administration will soon be implementing tax cuts for both corporations and citizens, which has been a cause for celebration within the market and has returned the Trump trade. The Fed is also hinting at increasing the frequency of the interest rate hikes this year by up to three times, and Yellen’s speech due tomorrow is expected to remain bullish on both the economic situation and the interest rate hikes.

There are no major economic data scheduled to be released for today from both the US and the European Union, so this means that the current trends would most likely to continue today, with the EUR/USD remaining under pressure for the rest of today’s session.

[AppleFX]

USD/JPY Fundamental Analysis: February 13, 2017

The USD/JPY pair increased in value due to a surge in the demand for high-risk assets during the trading session last Friday, however the currency pair eventually dropped in value as a result of a profit-taking phenomenon prior to the meeting between Japanese PM Shinzo Abe and US President Donald Trump. The USD/JPY pair closed down the previous session at 113.164 points after dropping by -0.05% or 0.062 points. Moreover, the USD rallied as a result of Trump’s recent remarks with regards to tax reforms in the US, with Trump stating that his administration’s tax plans will be announced in the coming weeks.

Looking forward to today’s trading session, the USD/JPY pair’s movement will most likely be influenced by investor sentiment, and an increase in the demand for high-risk assets would lend significant support for the currency pair. For today’s session, the market will be anticipating the release of the Preliminary GDP report for the 4th quarter of 2016, where the market is expecting the data reading to come in at 0.3%. In addition, the previous reading is also expected to be cut down at 0.3% as well. China will also be releasing its Producer and Consumer inflation data which is expected to have an impact as well on the USD/JPY pair.

There are no major news releases from the US for today, but come Tuesday investors will be reacting to quite a handful of economic data from the region such as the PPI report and Fed chair Yellen’s two-day testimony will commence along with the release of the Federal Reserve’s Monetary Policy report. This will be used by traders to look for clues with regards to the next Fed rate hike, while Wednesday will be the scheduled release of the CPI report from the US.

[AppleFX]

GBP/JPY Technical Analysis: February 13, 2017

The British pound against the Japanese yen rallied on Friday’s session. The price trend gives a bullish tone being tested at 142.50 level which will be balanced off when buyer pulls the price close to the 140 handle. This makes it more advantageous to go for long positions as seems to go uptrend for long-term. Consequently if the price breaks over the peak of the shooting star for the day, it is possible for the price to reach towards the 145 handle. It may not be favorable to sell this pair as British pound gives a long-term support level against the basket of currencies.

The pair is being traded with high volatility and recently the price has been reversed which is already expected as the price got lowered higher than the former. It may not advisable to go for short since the price could get even lower than 145 handle towards the 148.50 level. The buyers may dominate the market as the price continues to go deep. The Japanese yen has sold off against other currencies. There are potential risks in trading this pair as the pair might go higher, the same way with other currencies paired against the yen.

Overall, the pair gives a choppy sentiment with possibilities of big moves going in one direction as the market gives an impulsive reaction. It seems that the market wanted to reach higher but it remains in consolidation as the market is still trying to gain enough momentum to make a bigger move. However, if the price breaks down lower than the 130.50 level is not a good sign.

[AppleFX]

NZD/USD Technical Analysis: February 13, 2017

The New Zealand dollar against the U.S. dollar declined during Friday’s trading session but was able to recover. After the decline on Thursday session, it is not unexpected that the buyers will try to reach the price towards the 0.72 level. If the price breaks higher than the high point of the candle pattern, it is possible for the market to extend up to the 0.7350 mark for the second time. The market is seen to have a bullish tone for some time that makes the pullback attractive and beneficial of the price to traders. It may not be propitious to sell this pair for now.

[AppleFX]

EUR/GBP Technical Analysis: February 13, 2017

The Euro against the British pound swung within its range during the day with candle pattern formed giving a negative tint. A significant support was found at 0.85 level but sellers are trying to move the price. The price could further go down when the price breaks lower than the 0.8450 level. However, if the price breaks higher than the range that was seen during Friday’s trading session, the market could reach the former levels. Overall, there will a rough trading in the market.

[AppleFX]

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: February 14, 2017

The strength of the USD is now felt more than ever in the market, and this has caused other major currencies to experience the negative effects of the surge in the dollar’s value. For the EUR/USD pair, the currency pair has dropped to 1.0600 points and was only able to prevent itself from further decreasing due to its support barrier of 1.0580 points. However, the pair’s price activity looks very dismal and it is uncertain how long the bulls would be able to keep its hold on the pair before the bears manage to seize control and push the pair further downward. If this happens, then this could spell disaster for the euro.

The market is now able to fully adjust to Trump’s policies after an initial unrest caused by his team’s adjustments to certain regulations, with the market now sure of the administration’s approach with regards to policies, thereby improving investor confidence in the US dollar. This has helped to shift the market’s focus from the Fed’s future moves and Trump’s future implementations as well, and this has further helped to support the USD especially now that the Federal Reserve is keen on sticking to its statement that there will be a total of three interest rate hikes for this year.

The US will be releasing its PPI data today, and Fed chair Yellen will be making statements with regards to the central bank’s monetary policies during today’s speech in the New York session. The market will be monitoring Yellen’s speech later today and if Yellen becomes consistently bullish in her remarks, then the euro could be in for more price drops.

[AppleFX]

GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: February 14, 2017

The GBP/USD pair exhibited a tight trading activity during yesterday’s session as the USD’s value surge was felt across the market. However, this activity somewhat failed to make a dent in the value of the sterling pound. A lot of analysts have been saying during the past few days that the GBP is practically the only currency which has resisted the negative effects of the dollar strength in spite of the fact that it continues to be weak as a result of the Brexit process. This is because UK government officials have been working very hard to make the Brexit process clear for everyone, and any kind of certainty is very much welcomed by market traders and investors.

Another reason for the GBP/USD’s resistance against the strength of the dollar is the continuously positive string of economic data coming from UK which is an indicator that the country’s economy has not yet been affected by the repercussions of the Brexit process. This could also mean that both the UK economy and the sterling pound might even become better and stronger in the long term even when it finally relieves itself from the European Union. These speculations was able to maintain the GBP/USD pair’s position at 500 pips, with more ranging and consolidation expected to continue in the near future in spite of the dollar strength.

UK will be releasing its CPI data today and this will be closely monitored by the market whether this will come out as positive and affirm the country’s strong economic status. US will also be releasing its PPI data today and Yellen will be making a statement with regards to the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve, including economic status and interest rate hikes.

[AppleFX]

USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis: February 14, 2017

A lot of analysts have been saying that it is highly likely that the USD/CAD pair will be subject to an increased amount of pressure as oil prices continue to stay afloat and the economic data coming from the Canadian region continues to be consistently positive, a signal that the country’s economy gets better everyday. The currency pair is expected to remain under pressure as long as the US dollar remains under control, and this also means that the pair’s bulls would need to consistently strive to maintain the support barrier at 1.3000 points. This activity has been seen during the past trading session as the pair was able to surpass the 1.3100 barrier and is now currently going towards 1.3050 points.

The USD/CAD bears were also helped by the fact that Trump and Trudeau’s meeting yesterday was quite cordial, with Trump clarifying that the shifts he will be making on trade agreements will not have that much of an effect towards Canada. This helped to support the Canadian dollar which tried to surpass the dollar strength but eventually failed as the USD consistently surged in value.

There are no major news releases coming from Canada to day but the US will be releasing its PPI data and Yellen will be making comments on the central bank’s future monetary policy as well as the current state of the US economy. If her comments come out as bullish, then the USD/CAD pair might move towards and could even surpass 1.3100 points.

[AppleFX]

USD/JPY Fundamental Analysis: February 15, 2017

The USD/JPY pair surged in value on Tuesday as the demand for high-risk assets further increased among investors. The USD also became more attractive for investors as a result of an increase in Treasury yields. The USD/JPY pair finished off the last trading session at 114.249 points after increasing by 0.44% or 0.506 points. This increase in Treasury yields was further supported by Yellen’s remarks, after the Fed chair stated that it would be impractical to hold off the impending interest rate hikes by the central bank, especially in the face of burgeoning economic growth and inflation rates.

Today’s session is expected to be mostly driven by investor sentiments, with high demand for risky assets becoming the likely catalyst. Yellen will also be releasing a statement in Congress today, and the Fed chair is expected to offer more clarifications with regards to the guidelines and further details with regards to the Fed rate hike, with investors putting a 22% probability of an interest rate hike this coming March. The US will also be releasing a number of economic data today, such as the retail sales report and consumer inflation data. Accompanying these major reports are the Empire State Manufacturing Index, Capacity Utilization data, and Industrial Production data.

Yellen’s statement today is expected to inject additional volatility into the currency pair, and if her comments come out as hawkish, then this could cause the USD/JPY pair to further increase in value. If Yellen refuses to confirm market speculations of a rate hike in March, then this could be used by investors to book their own profits.

[AppleFX]

USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis: February 16, 2017

The USD/CAD pair continues to be subject to tremendous pressure, with the currency bulls doing their best to maintain their hold on the USD/CAD pair. The currency pair has been consistently on the brink of breaking through its critical support barrier for over weeks now, and forecasts have been saying that any breakthrough in this region would result to a major trend change for the currency pair.

The US released a string of important economic data yesterday which has significantly affected the value of the USD and injected volatility into the market. Both the CPI data and the retail sales data from the country were able to exceed market expectations, but then these positive data were overshadowed by a dismal wage data, and this caused the USD/CAD pair to temporarily break through 1.3100 points. However, as the market began to feel the effects of a weak wages data, a massive selloff in the USD started to occur and this put downward pressure on the USD/CAD, pushing it way below 1.3100. The currency pair is now trading just over its critical support barrier of 1.3060 points.

There are no major economic data scheduled to come out from both the US and Canada except for the unemployment claims data from the US. The USD/CAD pair is expected to remain within a limited range of 1.3000-1.3100 points.

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